The 2024-25 NBA season has seen several twists and turns, ranging from an onslaught of injuries, most recently Kyrie Irving’s season-ending torn ACL, to the league-altering Luka Dončić trade and the sudden dominance of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Despite all of the changes, one consistency remains: the dominance of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokić.
Jokić, arguably the most complete offensive player in NBA history, ranks third in the league in points (28.9 per game), second in assists (10.6 per game) and third in rebounds (12.9 per game) this season. Jokić’s average of 10.6 assists per game are the most by a center in NBA history, and he is on pace to become the first player ever to rank in the top three in all three categories in a season.
Jokić’s historic efficiency rounds out his statistically incomprehensible season, where he ranks second in the NBA in true shooting percentage (TS%), which uses field goals, free throws and 3-point percentages, among players who have played at least 20 games and averaged more than 5 made field goals per game. Additionally, Jokić ranks sixth in the NBA in 3-point percentage, shooting an impressive 43.9% on over 4 attempts per game.
Looking at the historic numbers Jokić is putting up, it is hard to believe anyone has a chance to win the MVP award over him. However, Gilgeous-Alexander presents a strong case, leading the NBA with an average of 32.8 points per game and averaging 6.2 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game, all while leading the Thunder to the best record in the Western Conference over the second-place Nuggets.
While wholly impressive, Gilgeous-Alexander’s raw numbers do not match Jokić’s. However, it is important to note that Jokić ranks ninth in minutes per game while Gilgeous-Alexander ranks 32nd. A large reason for this difference is the Thunder’s dominance, leading to Gilgeous-Alexander sitting out the entire fourth quarter 14 times. Additionally, Gilgeous-Alexander’s 64.5 TS% ranks seventh in NBA history among 30-plus point-per-game seasons, demonstrating his historic efficiency. On sheer statistics, Jokić surpasses Gilgeous-Alexander, but the Thunder star’s argument lies within historical context and his overall impact on the Thunder’s success.
The Thunder sit atop the Western Conference with an 11 game lead over the Nuggets, which is incredibly impressive given they have dealt with significant injuries, most notably with defensive anchor and supporting star Chet Holmgren missing 45 games. Additionally, key pieces like Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell have missed 20-plus games each due to injuries.
Despite this, Gilgeous-Alexander has propelled the Thunder to a +12.8-point margin per game, the highest in NBA history. Moreover, he leads all qualified players with a +17.7 NET rating. For reference, the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls hold the record for the best team NET rating with +13.4. When Gilgeous-Alexander is off the court, the Thunder have a +2.8 NET rating, demonstrating his impact.
Using NET rating and on-off splits, one thing is clear: Both teams are elite when their respective stars are on the court and are significantly worse off when they are on the bench. The Nuggets have a +11.4 rating with Jokić on the court but a –8.5 rating with him off. While Gilgeous-Alexander’s absence takes the Thunder from the best team of all time to a slightly above-average team, Jokić’s absence takes the Nuggets from a very good team to a very bad team. As much as the –8.5 metric highlights Jokić’s impact, it also highlights Denver’s flawed roster construction and inability to maintain consistency without Jokić.
Considering his two-way impact, I believe Gilgeous-Alexander’s value to the Thunder, in this season specifically, outweighs Jokić’s value to the Nuggets. Without Holmgren, an all-defensive talent, for 45 games, the Thunder still have the best defense in the NBA this season, with a league-best 106.1 defensive rating. The gap between the Thunder and the second-best defense, the Orlando Magic with a 109.4 rating, is the same as the gap between the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers, the 13th best team with a 112.7 rating.
The Thunder are loaded with defensive talent, but Gilgeous-Alexander’s commitment to that side of the floor is still evident. He is tied for the league lead in blocks among guards, is second among all players in steals and holds opponents to a 43% field goal percentage (3.3% lower than their season average of 46.3%).
Additionally, Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in defensive win shares, according to Basketball Reference. On the contrary, Jokić gives up the most field goals per game in the NBA at 9.9 per game, with opponents shooting 49.6% against him. The Nuggets are 1.8 points better defensively when Jokić is off the court, whereas the Thunder are 1 point better defensively when Gilgeous-Alexander is in.
Often, throughout the season, teams target star players on the defensive end. However, in the fourth quarter, among 275 qualified players, Gilgeous-Alexander ranks 14th in holding opponents below their season field goal percentage. Especially important while missing so many players due to injury, Gilgeous-Alexander’s domination on both ends juxtaposes with Jokić’s defensive struggles.
It is clear both players make their teams exponentially better, regardless of surrounding lineups or injuries to teammates. According to PBP Stats (excluding low leverage minutes), Jokić has a +7.19 NET rating in 146 minutes played without his three best players: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. This is impressive, but contrast that to Gilgeous-Alexander, who, without Jalen Williams, Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, his three best players, has a +30.06 NET rating in 535 minutes.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s statistics are mind-blowing, not just because of the preposterous 30.06 rating that makes his overall league-leading +17.7 rating look minuscule, but because of the significant sample size of 535 minutes. This signifies the load Gilgeous-Alexander has carried and how, independent of lineup, he elevates his team to historic levels. Gilgeous-Alexander’s dominance with weaker lineups around him gives the Thunder much more flexibility than the Nuggets. Because Gilgeous-Alexander has so much success, with even bench players, the Thunder can remain afloat when he’s off by putting their other best players on the court together, and staggering them off together for chunks when Gilgeous-Alexander plays.
Whoever wins MVP will be deserving. Jokić’s historic offensive numbers and just how bad the Nuggets are without him present a strong case. However, Gilgeous-Alexander is having a scoring season that mirrors the likes of Michael Jordan in terms of volume with significantly better efficiency. His propulsion of the Thunder to the best point margin in NBA history, while leading the league in scoring and defending at an elite level to compensate for injuries to the Thunder’s two best defenders for much of the year, make him most deserving of the award.
All statistics are as of March 9, 2025.