Most signs point to Democratic candidates winning the D.C. area’s congressional races and mayoral election, with three of the four congressional districts surrounding D.C. predicted to vote for Democratic candidates.
In the D.C. mayoral election, the Republicans have not put up a candidate to challenge Vincent Gray. Gray, the D.C. Council chairman, beat incumbent Mayor Adrian Fenty in the Sept. 14 Democratic primary.
Fenty’s term was marked by a push for education reform, notably seen through his appointment of Chancellor Michelle Rhee as head of D.C. Public Schools; Rhee resigned Oct. 13. While Rhee earned accolades from both documentaries and publications such as Time Magazine, she failed to win the support of Fenty’s constituents, who voted him out of office despite Rhee’s lobbying for Fenty’s re-election.
Although no Republican is officially registered for the mayoral election, Gray still faces competition from Carlos Allen, an Independent, Faith Dane of the D.C. Statehood Green Party and Omari Musa of the Socialist Worker’s Party.
Congressional elections in the area are also likely to go to Democratic candidates. In Virginia’s 11th District, made up of Fairfax and Prince William Counties, the major candidates are Republican Keith Fimian and Democrat Gerry Connolly. As of Oct. 30, The New York Times FiveThirtyEight Forecast predicted that Connolly will win, with polls showing that 49.8 percent of the votes will go to Connolly and 47.9 percent will go to Fimian.
Fimian, a small business leader according to his official website, is committed to make companies hire more employees. Connolly’s platform is instead based on school reform tax relief.
In Maryland’s 5th District, which stretches from Prince George’s County to St. Mary’s County, the FiveThirtyEight Forecast shows that Democratic House Majority Leader Rep. Steny Hoyer (LAW ’66) has a 99.9 percent chance of winning over Republican Charles Lollar. Hoyer is expected to claim 65.9 percent of the votes, with Loller taking only 31.5 percent.
According to Hoyer’s official website, he wants to rebuild the economy by creating more jobs. Lollar instead advocates for low taxes and reigning in government spending.
In Maryland’s 8th District, which includes Bethesda, Democrat victory is just as likely as in Maryland’s 5th District. According to The New York Times, Democrat Chris Van Hollen (LAW ’90) is almost guaranteed a victory over Republican Michael Lee Philips, likely claiming 69.6 percent of the vote compared to Philip’s 27.8 percent.
Virginia’s 8th District, which makes up most of Arlington County, as well as Alexandria and Falls Church, appears to be safely Democratic. Incumbent Rep. Jim Moran holds a 13-point lead, according to his opponent’s internal survey on Sept. 22, the Alexandria Times reported.
The only currently Republican district bordering D.C., Virginia’s 10th District, which stretches from West Virginia to McLean, was rated as safely Republican by both CQ Politics and The New York Times, with the Times predicting incumbent Frank Wolf to win with 62 percent of the vote.
Due to the Senate rotation, neither of Virginia’s senatorships are up for election this year, while Maryland’s senatorial election shows incumbent Democrat Sen. Barbara Mikulski holding between a 56 to 38 percent lead, according to an Oct. 24 poll by Rasmussen.