The 2023-24 Premier League (PL) season saw Manchester City win its fourth consecutive league title, the continued struggle of once great clubs Chelsea and Manchester United and all three newly-promoted teams relegated in the same season. The 2024-25 campaign promises to be as enthralling as ever; so, here are my predictions for this year’s Premier League finishes.
Top Four: Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur
On paper, Manchester City is still the best team from top to bottom in the PL. With the reigning PFA Players’ Player of the Year Phil Foden and Golden Boot winner Erling Haaland, who is off to a historic start this campaign, City is the obvious favorite. The only other club I predict could compete with City is Arsenal, who has enjoyed two consecutive seasons of very high-level football. The Gunners have a fantastic, young core of players whom manager Mikel Arteta has brought together well before, and he will do so again this year. If there’s anyone who could have a chance at the title besides City, it’s Arsenal.
Liverpool and Tottenham are the two next best teams in the PL. Liverpool has an amazing squad on paper, but I’m slightly skeptical that Arne Slot can rally his men to a top-two finish in his first year as manager. One manager I do believe in is Tottenham’s Ange Postecoglou. His squad may not be elite, but with new arrival Dominic Solanke in the striking ranks and with the management Postecoglou brings to the table, Tottenham are an elite team.
Above Average: Newcastle United, Aston Villa, Brighton & Hove Albion, Manchester United
After Liverpool and Tottenham, a steep dropoff occurs. Newcastle, Aston Villa and Brighton are all relative newcomers to elite Premier League football, but I believe in all three of them. After a Saudi-led acquisition in 2021, Newcastle has received an influx of money, talent and energy. The 2023-24 campaign saw them experience several substantial, season-altering injuries, but I expect them to channel all their positive trends into a Europa League finish in fifth place this season. Unai Emery’s Villa was consistently elite last season, earning a Champions League position. Though I do not expect them to finish in the top four this season, sixth will still be very respectable. Brighton & Hove Albion have emerged as an exceptional development team in the last several years. Taking players that have been underwritten or undervalued previously, they have an uncanny ability to create elite teams out of very little, and I expect them to continue that trend this year.
Manchester United are a conundrum; while they have a very good team on paper, they have struggled too significantly in the last five years to execute any kind of sustained success. I don’t see this season being any different.
Mid-Table: Chelsea, West Ham United, Crystal Palace, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Leicester City, Everton
Since Roman Abramovich sold the club in 2022, Chelsea has been a trainwreck. Buying whoever they see remotely fit, their outlandish spending and the departure of Conor Gallagher, their former captain, show that Chelsea’s ownership has no sense of how a football team should be formed. Expect West Ham, with exciting players like Lucas Paqueta, Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus who complement a fairly deep roster, to break into the top half of the table.
I believe West Ham concludes this second grouping of teams, with teams that follow after steeply dropping off in talent level and management. Crystal Palace, with Marc Guehi and Eberechi Eze, and Wolves, with Joao Gomes, have good players but lack depth. Leicester will compete in their return to the PL season. Everton, who has had historic struggles in recent seasons, should do mildly better this year without the burden of a financial fair play violation.
Below Average: Fulham, Nottingham Forest, Brentford
After Everton, I believe there is another dropoff to a grouping of five teams that will all battle to stay out of relegation positions. Truthfully, I could see any of these five teams finishing anywhere between the 15th and 19th positions in the table. I believe Fulham, Nottingham Forest and Brentford will stay up because of their squad depth compared with Bournemouth and Southampton. Fulham, with the quality signings of Emile Smith-Rowe and Joachim Andersen, will find some success, while Nottingham Forest’s deep roster with Anthony Elanga, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Morgan Gibbs-White and new signing James Ward-Prowse will compete. Though they may have little star power, manager Thomas Frank has proven he can organize Brentford into a club that survives relegation.
Relegation: Bournemouth, Southampton, Ipswich Town
I predict that Bournemouth and Southampton will compete this season, but will ultimately find themselves relegated. I believe the departure of former Bournemouth striker Solanke, who had a fantastic 2023-24 PL season, will induce serious attacking issues. Southampton has brought in too many players, with ten players arriving this summer via loan or transfer, which will bring some chemistry issues for the newly promoted side.
Ipswich Town, who are in the PL for the first time in 22 years, have by far the most untalented, shallowest squad in the PL. The combined transfer value of their whole squad is one-third the value of the next highest squad, a staggering statistic that reveals how small their chances of survival are. It’s a wonderful story that Ipswich made it back to the PL, but very few expect them to be here for long.