Midwest Region
1. Florida
Although Florida is the clear favorite to win the Midwest bracket, its top opponent is less clear. But dominant as they have been, the Gators have played ugly games this year, falling hard to Vanderbilt, Tennessee and LSU in the final weeks of the season. If Florida’s worse half shows up to play, opponent Maryland could find itself in the Elite Eight.
2. Wisconsin
The second-seeded Badgers face a difficult road after the first round, with potential matchups against Georgia Tech or UNLV and Oregon. The Badgers have had trouble scoring points lately, despite all-American junior forward Alando Tucker’s 20 ppg. The loss of junior center Brian Butch damages an already weak inside team.
3. Oregon
While the Badgers have struggled to score lately, Pac-10 champion and No. 3 seed Oregon has had an easy time from the floor with five players averaging double-digit point totals. Senior guard Aaron Brooks leads the Ducks with 17.6 ppg, while smaller than small freshman guard Tajuan Porter scores 14.4 ppg and has dropped at least 20 points in four of his last six games.
4. Maryland
The Terrapins began the season quietly but ended with a bang, beating North Carolina once and Duke twice in the last two weeks of the season. After a tough loss to a desperate Miami team in the first round of the ACC tournament, Maryland will look to return to its late-season form, when they won seven consecutive conference games to close the season.
5. Butler
Amateur `bracketologists’ and prognosticators search for every year’s No. 12-No. 5 upset, and the Midwest bracket has one in the making in the mid-major matchup between Old Dominion and the struggling Butler in the first round. Junior guard A.J. Graves leads the Bulldogs with 17 ppg but failed to hit critical shots in the Horizon League tournament.
6. Notre Dame
While Notre Dame rode hot shooting to the Big East semifinals, they may not need to perform as well against the 11th-seeded Winthrop Eagles. Led by a pair of senior guards, Russell Carter and Colin Falls, the Irish can score fast and often. Finishing fourth in the Big East, the Irish are not your everyday six seed.
7. UNLV
The UNLV Rebels earned a spot in the tournament after winning the Mountain West conference tournament over favored Brigham Young. The Rebels have won seven straight over conference opponents, many of whom had beaten them earlier in the year, but have little out-of-conference heft.
8. Arizona
The Wildcats are one of three teams in the tournament with that mascot and the fifth-place team in the Pac-10. Arizona made it to their conference final only to be blown out by Oregon, 69-50. Lute Olson’s squad has underperformed this year after being a Final Four contender much earlier in the season.
9. Purdue
Ninth-seeded Purdue of the Big Ten received a generous seeding from the selection committee and will face No. 8 Arizona in the first round. The Boilermakers received on of the last at-large bids in the field with a mediocre conference performance including big losses to Indiana and Illinois.
10. Georgia Tech
Despite a weak performance this season that included a four-game losing streak, Tech beat then-No. 8 North Carolina, Boston College, Purdue and then-No 11 Memphis – four notable wins that must have impressed the selection committee.
11. Winthrop
The Eagles’ only four losses this year came against ranked teams but Winthrop is just 2-5 against the RPI Top 50, and its 24 wins are inflated with 18 games against teams ranked 250 or worse in RPI and a strength-of-schedule rank of 273.
12. Old Dominion
The Monarchs boast a big non-conference win against then-No. 8 Georgetown, and won 12 consecutive league games as part of their at-large resume. Old Dominion will not be this year’s George ason, but may be this year’s Bradley, with a potential second-round game against Maryland that could lead to a Sweet 16 appearance.
13. Davidson
The Wildcats won the Southern Conference tournament and regular season to cap off a 29-win season. Davidson was no slouch, either, at 49th in the RPI. While the Wildcats may sport a friendly RPI, their strength-of-schedule rank of 199 may be the true measure of the team.
14. Miami (OH)
After winning the Mid-America Conference on a last-second three-point shot and knocking off league leader Akron, the RedHawks may be excited to just be in the Big Dance. Senior forward Nathan Peavey leads the RedHawks with 14 points and six rebounds per game.
15. Texas A & M-CC
The best team in the Southland Conference, the Islanders (26-6) have accumulated at least 20 wins for the third season in a row. But with a dearth of big wins and a schedule full of RPI 200+ teams, TAMCC will be a quick out, even against a struggling Wisconsin team.
16. Jackson State
The Tigers pulled off a surprising 10-point win in the SWAC final over Mississippi Valley State to earn their first tournament berth in seven years. That said, Jackson State will be in for a rough time in the first round against Florida. The Tigers rely heavily on senior guard Trey Johnson, who contributes 27 points per game.
West Region
No.1 Kansas
Kansas, a young but talented team, finished first in the Big 12 regular season standings and won the Big 12 tournament with an 88-84 overtime victory over Texas. The Jayhawks have won 11 games in a row and 24 of their last 26.
No. 2 UCLA
The Bruins, last year’s national runner-up, looked like a certain No. 1 seed two weeks ago. Then they lost to Washington 61-51 and fell to California 76-69 in overtime in the Pac-10 tournament. But all is not lost for the regular season Pac-10 champs, whose lineup features two outstanding players in junior guard Arron Afflalo, the Pac-10 player of the year, and speedy sophomore guard Darren Collison.
No. 3 Pittsburgh
Senior center Aaron Gray, the Panthers’ leading scorer and rebounder, will hope to make NBA scouts forget about the last time they saw him play. In the Big East championship game against Georgetown, Gray made just one of 13 field goal attempts as Pittsburgh lost 65-42.
No. 4 Southern Illinois
Considered the best mid-major team in the country, Southern Illinois won 13 games in a row before falling to Creighton in the championship game of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. The Salukis went 15-3 in conference play to claim the regular season issouri Valley title.
No. 5 Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech was the only team to defeat North Carolina twice this season, but the Hokies lost to North Carolina State three times. They defeated Southern Illinois, Duke and Maryland, but lost to Western Michigan and Marshall.
No. 6 Duke
The Blue Devils, who finished 8-8 in ACC play and went 4-7 in their final 11 games, probably did not deserve a six seed. They lost their final three games largely because of their struggles on the defensive end, and their last three opponents all scored at least 85 points against them.
7. Indiana
The Hoosiers went 10-6 in Big Ten conference play to finish third in the league’s regular season standings. In their last game, they lost to Illinois 58-54 in overtime in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. They have lost five of their last nine games.
8. Kentucky
The Wildcats won 21 games this season but went 0-6 against ranked teams. They have lost six of their last nine contests.
9. Villanova
With wins over Georgetown, Notre Dame and Louisville, the Wildcats earned an at-large bid despite finishing tied for eighth place in the Big East. Senior forward Curtis Sumpter and freshman guard Scottie Reynolds have been playing well lately, but Villanova’s success may depend on the status of senior guard ike Nardi’s ankle.
10. Gonzaga
The Bulldogs won the West Coast conference to earn their eighth straight bid to the Big Dance. They look to senior guard Derek Raivio for leadership and scoring, and he has not disappointed, averaging 18.2 points per game.
11. Virginia Commonwealth
The Rams won both the regular season and tournament titles in the competitive Colonial Athletic Association. Sophomore guard Eric aynor averages 13.6 points per game and has proven to be a clutch player for VCU, scoring nine consecutive points in the final two minutes of the Rams’ comeback win over George Mason in the CAA tournament title game.
12. Illinois
The Fighting Illini, who were fortunate to make it into the field of 65, have been through a lot this season. The school’s mascot, Chief Illiniwek, was retired after 86 years of service and sharp-shooting guards Rich McBride and Jamar Smith were both charged with DUI offenses. Smith is sitting out the rest of the season.
13. Holy Cross
Head Coach Ralph Willard’s Crusaders, the Patriot League champions, have won 18 of their last 20 games and play aggressive defense, forcing 16.9 turnovers per game. Senior guard Keith Simmons leads the way with 13.8 points and 5.8 rebounds per contest.
14. Wright State
The Raiders upset Butler in the Horizon League championship, but have nobody taller than 6-foot-8 and will likely struggle to stop Pittsburgh’s Aaron Gray. The Raiders will come up short unless 5-foot-11 senior guard Dashaun Wood scores well over his average of 19.8 points per game.
15. Weber State
First-year coach Randy Rahe has taken the Wildcats from worst to first in the Big Sky conference. Weber State will need a huge performance from senior forward David Patten, who averages 14.4 points per game, if it hopes to upend UCLA.
16. Niagara
The Purple Eagles are already ahead of the other 64 teams in the field, and not because of their nickname – they are the only team to have already won an NCAA tournament game this year. Clif Brown led the way in Tuesday night’s play-in game, as his 32-point effort gave Niagara the honor of being demolished by Kansas in the first round.
East Region
1. North Carolina
The Tar Heels, the ACC’s regular season and tournament champions, are looking for their second title in the last three years. UNC has depth, the outstanding freshman trio of Brandan Wright, Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson that averages nearly 40 points per game, and a bona fide star in sophomore Tyler Hansbrough.
3. Washington State
Bounced in the semifinals of the Pac-10 tournament, the Cougars received a three seed on the strength of a second-place finish in the regular season. Washington State played well against weaker non-conference opponents and most of what the Pac-10 had to offer, but lost both home and away contests against Oregon and UCLA.
4. Texas
Though some doubters cite Texas’ inexperience (the Longhorns’ top eight scorers are two sophomores and six freshmen), one of those freshmen is a candidate for player of the year. Despite his lanky frame, phenom Kevin Durant has posted otherworldly numbers, at times carrying the Longhorns on his back, with 25.5 points, 11.3 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 1.9 steals per game.
5. Southern California
The Trojans head into the tournament after a 24-point thumping at the hands of Oregon in the Pac-10 tournament championship, but USC has proven they can win against NCAA tournament competition. Led by Nick Young (17.4 ppg) and Taj Gibson (8.4 rpg), they boast nine wins over teams in the field, and have beaten Stanford, Arizona and Oregon twice.
6. Vanderbilt
The Commodores struggled out of the gate this season, losing three of their first four, including a home contest to little-known Furman. Behind the senior leadership of Derrick Byars (16.8 ppg) and Dan Cage (11.2 ppg), the Commodores rebounded to go 10-6 in the SEC, a campaign in which they snapped a Florida team’s 17-game winning.
7. Boston College
Losers in five of their last seven contests, the Eagles limped into the tournament. Senior Jared Dudley averages 19 points and 8.3 rebounds per game and posted 30 points in wins over Michigan State and Virginia Tech. If the Eagles continue to play the way they have in their recent skid, they will be out of the tournament faster than Bob Knight can throw a chair.
8. Marquette
After a strong start to the season, the Golden Eagles stumbled to a sixth-place finish in the Big East, losing five of their last eight. Marquette will most likely be without guard Jerel McNeal, and star Dominic James is nowhere near the level of Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade, who led the Golden Eagles to the Final Four in 2003.
9. Michigan State
Though they finished .500 in Big Ten play this year, the Spartans have been to half of the Final Fours in the past eight years, and cut down the nets in 2000. Led by point guard Drew Neitzel (18.1 ppg), Tom Izzo’s team enters the tournament with wins over Texas and Wisconsin under its belt.
10. Texas Tech
Head Coach Bob Knight has more victories than any other coach in Division I basketball and has won four national championships, but will need Jarius Jackson to post big numbers if the Red Raiders hope to advance past the first weekend. The senior guard averages 20.2 ppg and was held to single digits just twice on the year – Texas Tech lost both games.
11. George Washington
Following a 27-3 season last year, the Colonials won the A-10 tournament championship to return to the Big Dance this year. GWU rides an eight-game winning streak into the tournament and will rely heavily on the leadership of senior Carl Elliot, who averages 13.1 points, 5.1 boards and 4.9 assists per game.
12. Arkansas
Like the Trojans, the Razorbacks were blown out in their conference tournament title game. But unlike USC, Arkansas snuck into the dance as one of the last at-large bids. The selection committee must have thought the Razorbacks’ road wins at Southern Illinois and Vanderbilt twice outweighed a 7-9 SEC record and 13 overall losses.
13. New Mexico State
Winners of the WAC automatic bid, the Aggies have not beaten a high-caliber opponent outside of Nevada this year. Like Texas, New exico State’s players do not have much experience playing for their current team – their top four scorers are transfer students.
14. Oral Roberts
The Golden Eagles won both the regular season and tournament titles in the Mid Continent, and moved up from last year’s No. 16 seed with a win at Kansas early in the season. Seniors Caleb Green and Ken Tutt have both scored 2,000 points in their careers.
16. Eastern Kentucky
The Colonels are dancing after freshman Josh Taylor’s layup upended Austin Peay with 2.9 seconds remaining in the Ohio Valley tournament championship. The buzzer-beater may well be the highlight of the Colonel’s season, though, as Eastern Kentucky was blown out in its only two regular season games against teams that received NCAA tournament bids, Ohio State and Kentucky.
South Region
No. 1 Ohio State
Freshman center Greg Oden leads a talented Buckeye squad that looks primed for a run at the title. Oden has been a dominant force all season long, leading the Big Ten in rebounds and blocked shots and solidifying himself as one of the two top picks in the NBA draft. If the guard play of Mike Conley Jr. and Daequen Cook holds up, Ohio State is a favorite for the Final Four.
No. 2 Memphis
The Tigers coasted through their season in Conference USA undefeated, but that doesn’t say much in a division that boasts just one NCAA tournament team. Chris Douglas-Roberts (15.4 ppg) and Jeremy Hunt (14 ppg) lead a Memphis squad that hopes to validate its high seeding despite weak opponents.
No. 3 Texas A & M
Acie Law IV is one of the best guards in the country, and the Aggies will look to ride his talent as far as it takes them. Joseph Jones and Antanas Kavaliauskus both score in double digits in the paint, while Joseph Carter gives the offense a third dimension by shooting from behind the arc of over 50 percent.
No. 4 Virginia
Sean Singletary (18.9 ppg) and J.R. Reynolds (17.9 ppg) give the Cavaliers one of the best backcourts in the country. But the Cavaliers do not get much production from their frontcourt, which showed in their loss to N.C. State in the ACC tournament quarterfinals.
No. 5 Tennessee
Bruce Pearl’s team led the SEC in scoring behind inside-outside threat Chris Lofton (20.6 ppg) and an explosive perimeter game. The freshman tandem of Wayne Chism and Duke Crews has been the main contribution in the frontcourt and will be called upon much more in the postseason.
No. 6 Louisville
The Cardinals lack a consistent scoring threat, with leading scorer Terrence Johnson averaging just over 12 ppg. Louisville lost a heartbreaker in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament to Notre Dame after finishing the year second in the conference. If Louisville can get more scoring from guard Edgar Sosa and forward Juan Palacios, they could go far.
No. 7 Nevada
Senior Nick Fazekas (20.5 ppg, 11.2 rpg) nearly jumped to the NBA last season, but his decision to stick around for his final season solidified a squad that took home the regular season WAC title. Underrated coach Mark Fox heads a team that also boasts arcellus Kemp (18.2 ppg), a dribble-drive threat who complements Fazekas nicely.
No. 8 BYU
Keena Young (17.2 ppg) dominates underneath, joined by Trent Plaisted (12.2 ppg) and Lee Cummard (9.2 ppg) in the paint. BYU has the rare ability to overpower another team underneath, and can be a dangerous team when its guards knock down open shots.
No. 9 Xavier
The Musketeers will play with a chip on their shoulder, as many critics feel the team didn’t warrant a tournament bid after losing in the Atlantic 10 tournament. Xavier is a well balanced team with a nine-man rotation led by point guard Drew Lavender (4.7 apg) and forward Justin Doellman (13.4 ppg).
No. 10 Creighton
Nate Funk (17.6 ppg), Nate Funk and more Nate Funk is what the Bluejays need to make a run at the tournament title. The winners of the MVC tournament, the Bluejays are a defensive-minded team that is 20-1 when scoring over 62 points. Head Coach Dana Altman leads a squad that starts four guards.
No. 11 Stanford
In the tournament by the skin of their teeth, the Cardinals boast twin 7-footers Brooke and Robin Lopez, who make up arguably the best shot-blocking frontcourt in the country. Anthony Goods (13.4 ppg) was injured in the regular season finale and Stanford will need his scoring punch if they hope to get past defensive-minded Louisville in the first round.
No. 12 Long Beach State
Winners of the Big West, the squad could give Tennessee a run for its money if they get the most out of slashing Aaron Nixon (18.6 ppg) and big man Sterling Byrd (13.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg). The 49ers are a high-scoring team that could pull an upset if the game turns into a shootout.
No. 13 Albany
The Great Danes won the America East Conference for the second year in a row behind talented combo guard Jamar Wilson (18.6 ppg). The frontcourt is undersized, but that shouldn’t be a huge problem against a small Virginia team.
No. 14 Penn
Well, at least they’re smart. Point guard Ibrahim Jaaber (15.9 ppg) and big man Mark Zoller (18.9 ppg) carry the scoring load for the Quakers, having dominated the Ivy League all season. Getting by Texas A & M, however, is a whole other story.
No. 15 North Texas
Winners of the Sun Belt Conference, the Mean Green (yes, that’s their name) are led by a backcourt with three scorers in double digits. North Texas is making its first visit to the tournament since 1988, but an upset against Memphis is highly unlikely.
No. 16 Central Connecticut State
Winners of the Northeast Conference tournament, the “other” Blue Devils have three players averaging over 14.8 ppg, but have not seen anyone as dominant as the Buckeyes’ Greg Oden. They have a tall task ahead of them in trying to be the first 16 seed to knock off a No. 1.