Georgetown University’s Newspaper of Record since 1920

The Hoya

Georgetown University’s Newspaper of Record since 1920

The Hoya

Georgetown University’s Newspaper of Record since 1920

The Hoya

Paragamian: An Apple a Day Keeps Financial Woes Away

In my first column, I proposed asking ourselves one simple question as a starting point towards identifying profitable stock market investments: How do I spend my time and money? To illustrate my point, I discussed how investing in Chipotle and Starbucks a year ago — had we asked ourselves this question then — would have generated spectacular results. Let’s ask ourselves the same question today, and see what we can do to snag some extra cash for 2011.

Apple: OK, I admit it’s everywhere. But at the heart of it, isn’t that the point? No company offers products that better answer the aforementioned question than Apple Inc. (AAPL). We’ve all heard of the company’s success; quite simply, Apple has been the poster child for the technological revolution of our generation. Last May, Apple surpassed Microsoft as the third largest company in the world based on market capitalization (behind oil giants Exxon Mobil and PetroChina). Apple is not just a success story of the past, however. It’s a story of the present and the future.

iPods, iPhones and iPads have not only generated enormous revenue but have also spawned a “halo effect” for the company, attracting many customers to their Mac line of computers. Because of the “iProducts,” consumers who otherwise may never have considered a computer that ran anything other than the Windows operating system have been increasingly drawn towards Macs. Yet Apple still has the potential for huge market share gains. Macs only control about 10 percent of the U.S. computer market share and 4 percent of the worldwide share. Demand from our generation will likely push these percentages higher in years to come.

New models of the iPhone and iPad will also fuel growth. The Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) version of the iPhone that will launch this week on Verizon’s wireless network will open up the popular smartphone to a new market: Verizon’s more than 100 million wireless subscribers. Furthermore, analysts expect that Apple will introduce a 4G iPhone this upcoming summer. Then there’s the iPad: the product that is quickly grabbing the attention of professionals everywhere as a lightweight presentation tool and a fast, convenient way to access the web. According to The New York Times two weeks ago, if the iPad were its own company, it would rank among the largest 200 of the Fortune 500 companies. Knowing Apple, it won’t be long before the company upgrades the product. A new model is already anticipated, most likely one that will enable video-chatting capability.

So far, everything discussed is a commonly known fact and the fact that we spend a lot of time and money on Apple’s products does not alone indicate that its stock will soar. For a stock to rise significantly, there has to be more to the story — some element of surprise that will compel investors to flock towards it. As investors, our task is to do the homework, to figure this out before others so we buy in first.

Enormous growth potential lies in the possibility of Apple extending beyond individual consumers and garnering a foothold in the enterprise market — the market for businesses and organizations. So far, this is a market that Apple has been unable to tap into, as Research in Motion, the maker of Blackberry products, has largely monopolized the market because of its ability to satisfy the critical need for high security on corporate email. Now, however, companies are experimenting with iPhone corporate email capability through an application run by Good for Enterprise, and while results on security have come up short thus far, it may only be a matter of time. If Apple can find a solution for its security issues, we can look for its share of the global smartphone market, currently below 20 percent, to surge.

Importantly, while one would expect this strong growth potential to come at an expensive price, it does not. This is starting to get a bit technical, but Apple’s price per share divided by its earnings per spare — its price to earnings ratio (P/E) — is lower than the company’s earnings growth rate, a key indicator of good value.

Yes, there are risks. Apple’s earnings cannot continue growing at their current rapid rate forever. Based on analysts’ estimates, 2011 looks to be another explosive year of growth for Apple, but the rate of growth is expected to decline in 2012. For all you calculus students, this means that their earnings’ first derivative will remain positive, but the second derivative is expected to turn negative. Markets will anticipate this, and even if a company is doing very well, if its growth rate starts to slow that usually spells trouble.

In addition, competition with Google’s Android devices is heating up. Google and Apple recognize that the market for mobile devices is the next battleground for our fingers and money. Google has taken the lead among smartphones, as the number of smartphones running the Android operating system surpasses the number of iPhones. Furthermore, Android tablets have emerged, and more are expected, providing competition for the iPad.

But with its current reasonable stock price valuation, tremendous potential for market share gains in computers and smartphones and huge potential for revenue growth from the iPad, Apple still looks as though it has further to run. What makes Apple so vital is that it continually upgrades its products, and though you have the old model, you still yearn for the new one. Other than Facebook, which isn’t yet publicly traded, it’s hard to think of a company that better fits the themes of our generation — interconnected, always plugged in, trendy — and on whose products we spend more time and money, than Apple.

Matt Paragamian is a sophomore in the College. He can be reached at [email protected]. MoneyMojo appears every other Monday.

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