The Comprehensive Peace Agreement – also known as the Naivasha Agreement – was signed between the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, and the Sudanese government of Khartoum in 2005. The CPA was the international community’s latest – and most successful – attempt at ending Sudan’s second civil war. And on a whole, the agreement did what it was supposed to do. But the biggest and most important test of the CPA’s effectiveness will come on Jan. 9. A referendum to determine whether Southern Sudan should become an independent state or remain united with northern Sudan, is up for a vote.

Secession is surely in southern Sudan’s best interest, but only if it happens in a way that is both peaceful and equitable. For a long time, southern Sudan has been stagnant under the leadership of the north. Little money has been invested in the development of infrastructure in the south; in fact, the majority of the needs of the Sudanese in the south, such as education and health care, have been largely ignored. As a result, the mostly Christian African south has felt very disconnected from the mostly Arab and Muslim north, leading to a severe lack of national cohesion, to put it lightly.

Contrary to popular belief, southern Sudan has significant economic potential beyond its vast oil fields. Because of the lush, beautiful landscape in certain areas – such as Juba – southern Sudan has the potential to cultivate a lucrative tourism industry.

That said, the economic potential of the oil fields and large rare mineral deposits in southern Sudan cannot be ignored. In fact, these two resources are a big part of the reason that many in northern Sudan do not endorse waving goodbye to their southern compatriots. Along with debt allocation, one of the biggest issues that will have to be resolved is how the oil fields and revenues will be distributed.

Unfortunately, there are many potential points of contention on the issue of oil. First and foremost, blocking the Khartoum’s access to this money could lead to another outbreak of violence. Additionally, the oil pipeline for southern Sudan to get its oil to world markets runs through northern Sudan up to the Port of Sudan. Lastly, the government in Khartoum could draw the new boundaries in such a way that a large part of the oil fields do not even fall in southern Sudan’s jurisdiction.

But before we can even begin talking about how to distribute the debt and the oil revenues, let alone how to structure a new country, we must first consider if and how the referendum will take place. According to the terms of the CPA, a census had to be taken by 2008 in order for the referendum to occur. But because of lack of will and insufficient funds, the census was not taken until April 2009. Even still, issues concerning the votes of the southern Sudanese refugees in Khartoum, funding and security for the event, as well as the people in Darfur who fear participating in the referendum, all still need to be resolved.

Unlike northern Sudan, southern Sudan is united. Looking ahead, the continuation of this unity is contingent upon the equitable distribution of oil revenues continued and economic development. Economically, a big concern for an independent southern Sudan would be how to continue to attract foreign investment. Without this, there would be no economic development and the problems they would be trying to avoid by separating would continue to abound. With all this said, I am confident that southern Sudan can develop and eventually prosper.

Although maybe not as obvious, a peaceful separation is in northern Sudan’s best interest as well. For one, southern Sudan has threatened to blow up all the oil fields so that no one receives any of the oil revenue if the north hinders the process. The north would surely prefer a peace with some oil revenue, as opposed to continued violence and none. The north does not have the military or financial capacity to continue marginalizing the south or any of the other parts of Sudan. So why not end things on peaceful terms and begin anew? Yes there will be difficulties, but in all honesty, there aren’t any other options available for a fractious country on the brink of separation and anarchy.

Victoria Ngare is a junior in the School of Foreign Service and an editorial assistant for THE GUIDE.