Washington pollster Charlie Cook (CAS ’77) addressed the significance of recent opinion polls in this year’s tight race for the White House during a speech Thursday in White Gravenor.

Cook, who also edits The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan online analysis of electoral politics, offered a few tips on analyzing polls. He told audience members to look at the average of several polls and ignore the implications of the Electoral College.

Cook urged students not to “cherry pick polls,” or only accept polls that show their favored candidate in the lead.

He also cautioned against declaring a likely win for the incumbent, who he said usually appears strong in earlier polls because challengers tend to gain undecided votes in the last few days of an election.

Cook also said to ignore the Electoral College unless the candidates are within one percent of each other in the popular vote.

“The Gore-Bush election in 2000 was within that one percent. In fact, five states were each within one-half percent,” he said.

As in the 2000 election, the candidates have spent considerable time in the battleground states such as Florida and Ohio where today’s outcome could hinge on a very small vote margin.

Cook compared this close situation to the “blade of [a] knife.” According to him, the election is too close to call right now and the victorious candidate is likely to win by a small number of votes.

Cook also addressed the failures of each campaign.

Democrats failed to soften John Kerry’s “cold fish” personage at their national convention and have been unable to erase the public’s original perception of him, he said.

“If John Kerry had the personality of an ashtray, then he would be three to four percent ahead. But he does not seem to be a 3-D human being,” he said, alluding to Kerry’s purportedly stiff nature.

He said that he felt Kerry still lacks a likeable personality and is unable to connect with all Americans, especially those in rural, agricultural America.

In past years, Democratic candidates such as John F. Kennedy, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton (SFS ’68) were able to rouse spirit with their quirky backgrounds and catchy campaigns, which were perfectly tailored to the public’s concerns at the time, Cook continued.

In critiquing the Bush campaign, Cook alluded to inconsistencies in the economy, the war in Iraq and job shortages in the U.S. as problems for the president.

Though the economy has grown, job growth is sluggish and casualties in Iraq rise daily, Cook said.

But Cook did commend the Republicans for an effective convention in August. The Republicans presented a strong front, he said, by pulling together high-profile Republicans such as California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Sen. Zell Miller (D-Ga.) and Rudy Giuliani.

Yet even after such campaign efforts, other unpredictable factors are likely to affect this election, Cook said. He cited massive levels of voter registration among the youth, sporadic voters whose political views are unknown and the inability of campaign callers to reach the increasing number of people who primarily use cell phones.

Cook said that ultimately, the polls illustrate only one conclusion – the race is too close to call.

“I don’t think that we’ll even know on Wednesday morning the results of this election,” he said.