Sinking public confidence could result in a major shift in congressional control after November’s midterm elections, veteran political analyst Charlie Cook (CAS ’77) said during a speech Wednesday night in White Gravenor Hall.

Cook, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said that low approval ratings reported recently by major pollsters could threaten the Republican Party’s control of both houses of Congress.

“There’s a hurricane coming, and it’s going to hit the Republicans in November,” Cook said. “The only question is how much damage there will be.”

In the Senate, the Democrats need to pick up six Republican-held seats for a majority. Cook said that while such gains were possible, the high rate of incumbent victories in the Senate will work against the Democrats.

Cook also said that the Democrats have faced problems in recruiting qualified candidates to challenge Republican incumbents in House races. He added that recruitment problems were a reason the party has been unable to gain seats in either house in the past two election cycles.

“Very few quality challengers have run,” Cook said. “Instead, it’s mostly third-tier candidates running, people who have never run before or people who don’t know what they’re doing.”

Cook also discussed potential presidential candidates from both parties in the 2008 election. While former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) have emerged as early frontrunners for the Republican nomination, Cook noted that both candidates will have significant obstacles to overcome.

“Pigs will fly in 2008 before Republicans nominate someone who is pro-choice, pro-gun control and pro-gay rights like Giuliani,” Cook said. “McCain’s problem is that conservatives hate him and see him as a traitor.”

For Democrats, Cook described the nomination contest as a race to find an alternative to the early frontrunner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). He added that a Clinton candidacy could influence McCain’s fortunes in the Republican primaries.

“It will scare the life out of Republicans if it becomes clear that Clinton will get the Democratic nomination,” Cook said. “They will realize that McCain will be their only chance to beat her, and they will be forced to nominate him.”

Cook closed the discussion by saying that the easiest way for Democrats to retake the presidency in 2008 is to choose a nominee from the South. Such a candidate would be perceived as moderate by independent swing voters and more likely to win, Cook said.

The speech was sponsored by the College Democrats.