The Honorable Dennis B. Ross laid out a roadmap for American priorities after a war in Iraq, which he says is nearly inevitable, that includes stabilization, the war on terror and the resumption of the Israel-Palestine peace process. Ambassador Ross helped shape the Middle East peace process through diplomacy and negotiations under the first Bush and Clinton administrations.

In his lecture entitled “Peace in the Middle East: Is it Possible,” Ross addressed both Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in Gaston Hall Monday evening.

Ross, who is Director and Distinguished Fellow of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, addressed the challenges America faces with a war in Iraq, a stalled Middle East peace process and the inability to win hearts and minds in the war on terror. He spoke of the importance of standing for values and being consistent in what we say we believe and whom we support. Although the United States may be good at talking about democracy, others perceive a double standard, especially in the Arab world. He said he saw Israel as only a part of the problem.

“We are seen as using democracy as a club against those we don’t like, but even against those we do like,” Ross said. “We need to adopt a stance consistent with our values.” He asserted that this, not military or financial means, is the only way to win over those who are attracted to extremist ideologies.

Having facilitated numerous peace agreements in the Middle East, including the Hebron Accord in 1997, Ambassador Ross said that the environment now is different since both sides have lost faith in the process. “We have to reestablish the concept of believability in peacemaking,” he said, calling for American involvement in the process. He said the current goals of the Middle East framework are asymmetrical and that the key is still ending the violence. Ross expressed optimism that Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat’s decision to appoint a prime minister will allow for the peace process to proceed.

Ross was not so optimistic about a peaceful resolution with Iraq. He put the chance of war at 95 percent because of several factors that make backing off unlikely, if not impossible. First, President Bush doesn’t feel that he is rushing into anything since the United Nations Security Council has passed 17 resolutions, none of which Saddam Hussein has lived up to. Bush feels he’s already allowed the U.N. process to play itself out since his speech to the Security Council on Sept. 12 of last year.

“This president says what he means and does what he says, so if he puts in troops and says Saddam must be disarmed, then from a political standpoint it is very difficult for this president not to follow through,” Ross said.

The 200,000 troops preparing for war in the region also creates “new reality that makes it difficult for us not to go to war,” Ross said. Calling Saddam a “mastermind of miscalculation,” Ross cited both the Iraqi wars with Iran and Kuwait as evidence of the Iraqi leader’s gross underestimation of the costs of war and responses by the international community.

“Saddam isn’t reading this President right, and no one close to Saddam can tell him the truth,” Ross said. “Shoot the messenger is not just a saying with him.” So while there may be a slim possibility that Saddam will accept the situation and get out before it is too late, Ross thinks this is unlikely to occur, which makes the question of what American priorities after the war should be especially relevant.

Promoting a stabilization package consisting of peacekeeping, multinational administration of Iraq and an executive or consultative council made up of all Iraqi groups, Ross urged America to rebuild Iraq with an eye toward stability and transformation. “There is no such thing as instant democracy.”

Ross stressed the importance of multilateral cooperation and local participation throughout the process. Americans should seek broad support and division of labor with its allies to avoid Iraqi perception of an American occupation or an “exercise to remake Iraq in our image.” The Iraqi council would work in tandem with international peacekeepers to allow the Iraqi people to decide their future, a future they can finance with their oil money.

Somewhat skeptical about claims that Iraq will be a springboard for democracy in the Middle East, Ross did allow for the possibility if we support constructive transformation and don’t expect to see a change overnight. War, however, seems likely to come first.

Nearly one hundred students, faculty and community leaders attended the sixth Marver H. Bernstein Symposium on Governmental Reform.