The Georgetown men’s soccer team (10-5-4, 5-3-1 Big East) suffered a heartbreaking loss to St. John’s (12-6-2, 4-5-0 Big East) in the first round of the Big East tournament Thursday night, but the team still has hope for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament as it anticipates the selection show next Monday afternoon.

Georgetown currently sits at 47 in the Ratings Percentage Index rankings, but the NCAA will release a new list this afternoon. That revised version will give the Hoyas a clearer picture of their chance at a bid as the selection draws near.

The team has been ranked within the top 20 for almost the entire season — a factor it hopes will work in its favor next week. But for Head Coach Brian Wiese, there is an equal possibility that the Hoyas miss out on the tournament this year. A lack of quality victories could potentially plague a team that had one of the most successful seasons in its history.

“Sadly I think our chances are about 50-50,” he said. “I think where we’ve been in the rankings for most of the year is important, but the heaviest and most important criteria for gauging where you’re going to be in the selection is the RPI. I think some of the teams that we played and that we scheduled intentionally to help us with our RPI didn’t really help.”

Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Penn and Princeton were expected to be solid bets for high RPIgames, but their own disappointing records could end up having a negative effect on Georgetown’s chances. Few victories against top-ranked teams could also impact the Hoyas’ shot at the tournament.

“I think if we’re not going to make the tournament the thing that’s going to keep us out is that what we don’t have is a big win,” Wiese said. “We have some good wins, but we don’t have a top-20 RPI victory. We have some good road wins, we have the tie against UConn on the road, and that’s a good result, but it’s still not a win.”

Their Senior Day loss against Providence could also prove costly for the Hoyas as they await the selection. A victory would have earned the team second place in the Big East and almost guaranteed an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament, even with the loss in the league tournament.

“I think it just goes to show you how little there is between a hugely successful season and one where you’re sitting on the fence biting your nails. It was that Saturday — that snowy, weird weather Saturday. It comes down to something as small as that one moment and that one game,” Wiese said.

If the team does capture a tournament berth next week, their first-round opponent would be up in the air. Typically the NCAA tries to mitigate travel by scheduling as many regional games as possible, while still ensuring that the teams who have earned high seeds are getting appropriate matchups. Depending on this week’s tournament results and the committee’s choices, there is a chance Georgetown could face off against a local team, such as American, Maryland or James Madison.

“There’s a lot of local teams that we could play,” Wiese said. “There’s just such a density of teams in the area that it literally could be anyone. We just have to wait and see where they select us. At this stage, we’d be happy with anything.”

Last year the team earned its first NCAA tournament berth since 1997 and its first under Wiese. It was only the third tournament appearance in program history, with the first having come in 1994.

The Hoyas finished last year’s regular season as Big East Blue Division champions and earned a bye to the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament. Despite losing to Providence there, they were awarded an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, where they defeated UNC-Greensboro before falling in penalty kicks to North Carolina in the second round.

Georgetown took a break from training this weekend but was back in action on Monday afternoon as they prepare to avenge last season’s second-round loss.

“We’ve been a little unlucky but I think all we can do now is wait and hope our case is strong enough to get in,” Wiese said. “I certainly think this team is good enough to be in the tournament — it’s just as good as any team I’ve had.”

“It’s just a terrific group of guys,” he continued. “They have all the chemistry and all the ingredients and they’ve done all the hard things they need to do to get to that goal of getting to the NCAA tournament. We’re just hoping the committee sees the same.”

The selection show will take place at 4:30 p.m. on Monday, Nov. 14. If the team earns a bid, they will play a first-round matchup on Thursday afternoon.