If there’s anything to take away from last week’s divisional series, it’s to expect the unexpected.
After an entire 162-game season, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees proved to be the two best teams in the league. Yet just five games later, both teams find themselves back home watching MLB’s semifinals instead of playing in them.
And that’s what I love most about the MLB: While it has become easier to predict the results of a whole season (as evidenced in “Moneyball”), anything can happen in the playoffs.
At the same time, however, it’s still fun to break down each series and attempt to figure out what will happen. After all, a couple hits here and there by New York and Philadelphia could have easily changed everything, and I’d be sitting here with a perfect “bracket,” so to speak.
But I digress. Even though the league’s best are eliminated, we still have four quality teams and two compelling series ahead of us. Ahead is my breakdown of the 2011 ALCS and NLCS.
American League Championship Series: Texas Rangers v. Detroit Tigers (Rangers in 6)
Although the Tigers knocked off the AL favorite Yankees, the Rangers beat the Rays — arguably the league’s hottest team — in four games, including three straight to close the series.
Other than the top of the rotation, where the Tigers have the unquestioned AL Cy Young champ in Justin Verlander, Texas has an advantage in virtually every aspect of the game. The teams are certainly comparable, but their rotation and bullpen depth, as well as a superior batting order from top-to-bottom, gives the Rangers the edge in the series.
A lot of pressure will be on Verlander and Detroit’s No. 2 starter Doug Fister to limit the Texas offensive. I expect Josh Hamilton to show off his star power with a big series, but any number of Rangers hitters could prove to be difference-makers.
Detroit’s lineup is also impressive, but a lot of pressure will be on Miguel Cabrera — especially with an injury to Delmon Young that could keep him out several contests. Brandon Inge and Ramon Santiago are albatrosses, and rookie Don Kelly isn’t dynamic either.
The Rangers also have acquired significant bullpen depth with the additions of Mike Adams, Koji Uehara and Mike Gonzalez midseason to help the likes of Alexi Ogando and closer Neftali Feliz. The Tigers’ Jose Valverde was the best reliever all year, converting all of his save chances, including game five against New York in the divisional series. Texas, however, simply has greater depth.
Despite a starting rotation disadvantage, I like the Rangers in six.
National League Championship Series: Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals (Brewers in 7)
Both the Brewers and Cardinals won in dramatic fashion in their respective Game Fives Friday night, which has set up an intriguing matchup between divisional foes for the chance to advance to the World Series.
Outspoken Milwaukee center fielder Nyjer Morgan knocked a walk-off single in the 10th inning to devastate the Diamondbacks, 3-2, while several hours later Chris Carpenter’s 1-0 shutout of the Phillies pushed St. Louis into the NLCS.
In an NL Central battle, expect more of the same drama. With the ability to throw out several stud starters such as Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, along with a murderer’s row of Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks, I like the Brewers to represent the National League in the World Series.
The Cardinals are a similar team. They possess the best pitcher in the series in Carpenter, along with impressive youngster Jaime Garcia. Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday also form a powerful trio in heart of the St. Louis lineup that could very well determine the outcome of the series.
In the bullpen, however, Milwaukee’s staff is superior to St. Louis. The Cardinals have had a revolving door at the back of the ‘pen with Jason Motte taking the role as closer, but the Brewers’ combination of Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez and John Axford lead a superior Milwaukee group.
Ultimately, this is Milwaukee’s one chance to win. Fielder is likely to depart this offseason through free agency, and while the Cardinals’ Pujols could do the same, there is overwhelming sentiment that he will return to St. Louis. This year’s Brewers squad has an air of destiny around them and I don’t believe they will be denied. Brewers in a dramatic seven-game series.
