It seems every few seasons, a new supposed special talent arises, from LeBron James to Ben Simmons to Zion Williamson. This year, there’s an 18-year-old basketball player who could be as good as Rudy Gobert defensively and as skilled as a young Kevin Durant on offense.
This sounds like a fantasy discussed exclusively on obscure podcasts, but that player exists. Victor Wembanyama, a 7-foot-3 generational prospect from France, is only 18 years old but he has rightfully been heralded as the best prospect since LeBron James. His staggering height and movement alone would make him exceptional, but Wembanyama is also very skilled.
He put his skills on display a few weeks ago during two exhibition games against young American competition. In two games against some of the best American prospects, including projected 2023 No. 2 NBA draft pick Scoot Henderson, Wembanyama shone. He averaged 36.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.5 blocks over the two games, all while shooting 50% from the field and making nine 3-pointers.
For many Americans, those two games were their first time watching the French phenom play. However, Wembanyama has been on the NBA radar for years now, and he’s almost guaranteed to be the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. The Frenchman even said it himself when talking about fellow prospect Henderson: “He’s really a great player. If I was never born, I think he would deserve the first spot.”
Teams are aching to draft Wembanyama with the hope that he will change the direction of any franchise he plays for. While good prospects often make for intriguing storylines and skilled players, the consequence of Wembanyama’s extraordinary talent is the lack of parity it will cause.
The NBA has seen tanking before, most famously with “The Process” Philadelphia 76ers who popularized the idea by deliberately punting on almost a half-decade of competitive basketball to land high draft picks. This strategy inspired other teams to apply the same tactic and prompted the league to make changes to the draft lottery process.
The NBA altered the odds of lottery-bound teams, making the three teams with the worst records each have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick, while teams with slightly better records are not far behind. The league also made the play-in tournament a permanent fixture, giving mediocre teams more incentive to win late in the season. Thus far, the changes seem to have worked, as blatant tanking has fallen by the wayside in recent seasons.
This year is likely to buck that trend, though, largely because of Wembanyama. Prospects like him don’t come around often. Teams know this, and bad teams are planning accordingly. Two teams’ offseasons specifically illustrate this idea.
The Utah Jazz had been playoff contenders for five straight seasons, led by defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert and electric scorer Donovan Mitchell. After another ugly playoff exit, however, executive Danny Ainge decided it was time to reset, trading his two All-Stars for first-round picks. Utah has started the season strong, but don’t be surprised if the team unloads the rest of its veterans when it struggles in January.
The San Antonio Spurs also hit the reset button this offseason. After contending for a title for two straight decades, the Spurs have been mired in mediocrity. For the first time since 1996, San Antonio is not trying to contend this season. The Spurs traded their only real star, Dejounte Murray, to the Atlanta Hawks for an assortment of draft picks. The fact that the Spurs aren’t even trying to contend, more than almost anything else, is a sign that the league is headed for an all-out tank this year.
Other than the Spurs and Jazz, the Oklahoma City Thunder, Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers and Houston Rockets are unlikely to be anywhere near playoff contention and are likely also racing to the bottom. Fans could also see the Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards, Sacramento Kings or even Portland Trail Blazers shop their veterans and join the tank if the playoffs seem like a pipe dream in a few months. Not all these teams will be trying to lose, but in this hypothetical world, viewers could see as many as 10 teams intentionally losing by February this season just for better lottery odds.
One thing is certain: widespread tanking, which forces fans to watch teams actively try to lose, would be horrible for the league, no matter how great Wembanyama will be when he gets here.
