About a quarter of the way through the NBA season, the league’s best teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack. However, Las Vegas has hardly adjusted its title odds. These odds barely correlate to what we have seen on the court so far this season. The Brooklyn Nets opened the season as heavy favorites to win the title at +200 and have only slid to +260 since the start of the season. Those odds roughly represent a 23% chance of winning the title, a preposterous number at the moment given their play relative to the rest of the league.

Two teams have been head and shoulders above the Nets to start the season — the Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns — but oddsmakers have refused to acknowledge this fact. After rough back-to-back seasons, the Warriors seem to have hopped in a time machine and are playing like it is 2016 again. 

Led by MVP favorite Stephen Curry, the Warriors have boasted a dominant 18-3 record by playing fantastic basketball on both ends of the court. They lead the NBA in both points per game and points allowed per game, resulting in a league-best +12.6 points differential. 

The scariest part for the rest of the league is that the Warriors are still missing one of the best shooters in NBA history: Klay Thompson, who has not played since tearing his ACL in the 2019 NBA Finals and blowing his Achilles tendon before the 2020-21 season. Thompson’s skill level remains to be seen, but it is hard to imagine Golden State getting any worse following his return. Despite their success, the Warriors are still second in the odds at +550, significantly behind the Nets.

One would think that the Warriors would sit alone at the top of the standings, but the reigning Western Conference champions, the Suns, are hot on their tail. After starting the season at 1-3, the Suns have rattled off 17 straight wins, including a dominant victory over the Nets. 

It took a historic performance by Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo to stop Phoenix from hoisting the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy in July and the Suns have only improved. Through the first 20 games last year, Phoenix was just 11-9 compared to its 17-3 start this year. Regardless, Vegas has a shockingly pessimistic view of the Suns with just the seventh best odds for the title at +1400, or 5.5%. 

The Nets, meanwhile, have not lived up to their lofty expectations. Their biggest problem is the absence of their star guard Kyrie Irving, who remains on the bench due to his refusal to get vaccinated against COVID-19. While New York City mandates only limit Irving’s ability to play in home games, in October, the Nets announced that Irving would not be able to participate in any team activities until he received his vaccine. 

Missing Irving is a brutal loss for the Nets, especially due to the sudden nature of his ineligibility. Irving was fantastic for his team a year ago, going on to post a 50-40-90 season. Perhaps oddsmakers are factoring in the chances of Irving’s return. But given that the Nets are choosing to limit his engagement, an unvaccinated return is unlikely for Irving. 

The Nets that are actually playing have not exactly performed like title favorites. Brooklyn’s other star guard, James Harden, is having his worst season in a decade. Harden is shooting 41.6% from the field, averaging five turnovers a game, and scoring just 21 points per game, all figures that match or just barely improve on the worst marks of his career. 

As Harden struggles, the Nets’ final star and best player, Kevin Durant, has had to shoulder a heavy load. Durant’s stellar play currently has him in second place in the MVP race, and he is largely responsible for the Nets’ success thus far. However, to keep the Nets afloat, he is playing the most minutes of his career since leaving the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2016. 

On Saturday Nov. 27, Durant played the final 33 minutes of the Nets’ loss to the Suns. Playing so many consecutive minutes is very rare for a regular season game, especially given Durant’s injury history. The Nets are pushing their (remaining) stars to their limits to win relatively meaningless regular season games. If this continues, they will be exhausted by the playoffs and will likely struggle to keep up with better-rested opponents.

The Nets are barely clinging to their spot in the standings as the Warriors and Suns surge ahead. Oddsmakers are too enamored with the Nets’ starpower to adjust for their lackluster performance. Barring a sudden revitalization, the Nets’ odds ought to fall dramatically as the Suns and Warriors’ odds increase to match their level of play.