Coming off a close but encouraging 74-66 loss on the road to Big East powerhouse and No. 7 AP poll-ranked Marquette University, the energy surrounding Georgetown University men’s basketball was sky-high ahead of Saturday’s showdown at Capital One Arena against two-time defending national champions and No. 9 AP poll-ranked University of Connecticut (UConn) Huskies. Armed with an overflowing and rowdy student section waving gray rally towels, along with an announced crowd of 17,168 (the largest attendance for a Georgetown home game since Dec. 5, 2015, against Syracuse University), fans were ready to see Georgetown’s climb back to national relevance culminate in the heart of the nation’s capital.
However, after a back-and-forth first half, Georgetown’s (12-5, 3-3 Big East) fans largely started clearing out following UConn’s (13-4, 5-1 Big East) dominant 17-2 run to open the second half. While the final score only reflected an 8-point loss, the Huskies’ far more cohesive and experienced roster thoroughly dominated the Hoyas, leading by as much as 23 points during the game. Once again, Georgetown fell short, leading many to wonder how high the ceiling is for the 2024-25 team from here on out.
Let’s take a look at the facts. Georgetown currently sits at an impressive 12 wins and 4 losses. Purely from a record perspective, the Hoyas are already leaps and bounds ahead of last year, not to mention the dog days of Patrick Ewing’s coaching era. Georgetown already owns more Big East wins this year (3) than in each of the last three seasons. Furthermore, their 12 wins represent the program’s highest win total since the 2020-21 season, when they finished 13-13 (7-9 Big East) and made their most recent March Madness appearance off a miraculous 4-game win streak in the Big East tournament.
From an analytical perspective, Georgetown currently ranks 68th in the NET rankings, 63rd on Kenpom.com and 75th on ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI). Despite the 2-game losing streak, Georgetown currently sits at a season-high mark in both the NET and Kenpom.com rankings, which consider the opponent’s strength and losing margins significantly in their formulas. The Hoyas sit a little further back in ESPN’s BPI rankings due to the system’s greater emphasis on prediction-based rankings, as the Hoyas are predicted to regress considerably in every model. Through Georgetown’s first 16 games, the squad, as reflected in its current NET, BPI and KenPom.com rankings, sits about 20 to 25 teams out of the tournament field, reflecting that Georgetown still has a long way to go before they have a legitimate shot at the NCAA tournament this season.
While the team sits at a 12-4 overall record, Georgetown’s strength of schedule (SOS) is considerably poor, with their NET SOS sitting at 144 and Kenpom.com having the team’s net rating SOS at -0.09, good for 163rd in the nation. In other words, Georgetown has thus far benefited tremendously from a weak schedule, especially its non-conference schedule. With lightweights like Wagner, Coppin State, Fairfield and others coming to “The Cap,” Georgetown has racked up comfortable wins that contributed to its hot 12-4 start. In total, Georgetown currently holds a combined 10-1 record in Q3 and Q4 games (the weakest games a team can play) while holding just a 2-3 mark in Q1 and Q2 games, including a 0-3 mark in Q1 contests. However, Georgetown does own a couple of impressive wins, including an 81-57 blowout of perennial tournament contender Creighton Dec. 18 and a hard-fought 75-71 road win against rival Syracuse Dec. 14 (their first win over their longtime nemesis since 2021).
Georgetown’s 3-0 Big East start represented the program’s best start in conference play since 2011-12, when the Hoyas finished the year ranked 15th in the final AP poll and earned a 3-seed in the NCAA tournament. However, with the losses to Marquette and UConn and an early season blowout at the hands of the University of Notre Dame, Georgetown has shown its youth and inexperience when it matters most, which is not surprising considering the roster is one of the youngest in the nation and the youngest in the Big East.
With young leaders like sophomore guard Malik Mack, standout first-year center Thomas Sorber and junior guard Jayden Epps, Georgetown has shown measurable progress in the second year of the Ed Cooley era after he departed from Big East rival Providence College. Simultaneously, Georgetown has shown tremendous growth on the defensive side of basketball. While Cooley used to derail his team’s defensive effort in press conferences, the team is now leaning on their cohesiveness, especially in its 2-3 zone, to keep the team in games against major national powers. According to Kenpom.com, Georgetown’s adjusted defensive efficiency sits at 94.7, which is good for 19th in the nation. Cooley’s team has shown remarkable defensive growth as the season has progressed and as most basketball fans know, defense wins championships.
To continue to parlay success off their hot start, Georgetown will have to improve offensively and in the turnover department. As it stands, Georgetown currently sits at an adjusted offensive efficiency of 107.4, good for 153rd in the country, according to Kenpom.com. At a base level, the team averages just 74.1 points per game, which clocks in at just 212th in the country. In contests against more talented and experienced groups, Georgetown has struggled to find good shots and get the ball down low to Sorber. The team as a whole is mediocre at best from behind the arc, shooting just a combined 32.5%, good for 254th in the country. For Cooley’s program to earn its first Q1 victory since March 13, 2021, against Creighton, the Hoyas will have to find ways to get the ball down low to Sorber and to standout graduate forward Micah Peavy while also limiting their turnovers down the stretch. In the UConn game alone, Georgetown’s 14 turnovers led to 22 UConn points, a margin that just can not happen against the sport’s elite, let alone the two-time defending national champions.
Overall, Georgetown basketball fans should be pleasantly surprised about where they find their beloved Hoyas so far this season. With a roster filled with young talent and Ed Cooley’s continued success on the recruiting trail, the Hoyas are approaching national relevance for the first time in over a decade. If the season ended today, Hoya fans should be thrilled with the team’s competence in Big East play and the toughness the roster showed. Ed Cooley has consistently been one of the best program builders in college men’s basketball, and his second year at Georgetown has only reinforced that point.
However, fans should temper their expectations for the team as they enter the meat of their Big East schedule, which includes two games against Villanova University, two games against St. John’s University and one more apiece against UConn and Marquette. As it currently stands, Georgetown is projected to finish 17-14 overall with an 8-12 mark in Big East play.
While I personally believe the Hoyas will steal a few games they are not supposed to win and approach 20 wins, fans should be rooting more for an appearance in the NIT than in the NCAA tournament. Regardless of how the rest of the season goes, Georgetown has made it clear that they are once again on the rise.
