As MLB enters the final month of its regular season, the playoff picture is starting to become clearer. This season has definitely been a strange one, defined by unexpected parity, the breakout of several small market teams, an intense trade deadline and several massive disappointments from expected contenders.
The Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in baseball, and it’s not particularly close. Following the Brewers are the Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs.
At the beginning of the season, ESPN projected the Brewers to win 80 games, and Milwaukee has already won 89. ESPN projected the Blue Jays, Cubs and Tigers to have 83, 84 and 83 wins respectively; the teams have won 83, 82 and 83 games respectively.
Although they sit atop the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers have certainly been underwhelming this year, especially of late. Mookie Betts’ struggles coupled with an injured pitching staff and a weak trade deadline has raised questions about the team heading into October.
The Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles are two teams that have completely disappointed, both projected to win 88+ games but on pace for 65 and 67 wins respectively. The Orioles’ pitching staff was a concern coming into the year given the loss of Corbin Burnes in free agency and Grayson Rodriguez to injury. That concern has definitely been proven correct, as they rank 25th in team ERA largely due to the factors above, in addition to disappointing seasons from Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Cade Povich.
The Braves too have been hurt by injuries to their pitching staff, as Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo López and AJ Smith-Shawver have all missed considerable time.
As the season winds down, the NL playoff picture is mostly clear. The Phillies and Brewers have comfortable leads in their divisions. The Cubs control the top wild card spot, and the Mets control the last one, ahead of the San Francisco Giants by 2 games and holding the tiebreaker over them. Five of six playoff teams will almost certainly be the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Cubs and San Diego Padres. The New York Mets hold onto a two game lead for the final spot, but a recent slump has endangered it. The only undecided division is the NL West, as the Dodgers hold a slim 2-game lead over the Padres. Both teams have been struggling with underperforming offenses, and whoever finishes second in the division will likely be on the road for a Wild Card Series matchup with the Cubs.
The AL playoff picture is more up in the air, with several teams still vying for the last playoff spot. The Tigers hold a comfortable lead in the AL Central, and the Astros and Jays hold onto narrow leads in their divisions. That leaves three wild card spots, with two likely going to the Yankees and Red Sox. There are four teams competitively in the hunt for the final wild card spot, currently held by the Seattle Mariners. The Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians have all been playing well recently and are now threatening the Mariners.
Looking toward the postseason, the Brewers’ regular season success might not be indicative of future playoff success. Albeit their dominance, the Brewers lack offensive power, ranking 12th in slugging percentage and just 20th in home runs. Their speed, defensive prowess and pitching staff have carried them thus far, but come October, stringing hits together will be much harder against elite pitching. Since 2020, every World Series champion has been in the top five in both slugging and home runs, which the Brewers are far from. Additionally, outside of Freddy Peralta, who’s having a career year, there are questions about the Brewers’ rotation. Brandon Woodruff has thrown just 59.2 IP, and the team is heavily relying on rookie Jacob Misiorowski — who has thrown just a 55 career IP — and Quinn Priester, who has yet to throw a pitch in a playoff game.
Secondly, can teams like the Dodgers and Mets, the top two spending teams this season who have underperformed, get hot at the right time? We have seen time and time again that it’s often not the best regular season team, but rather the team who gets hot that succeeds in October. For the Mets, their offense has come alive thanks to Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Mark Vientos’ sudden resurgence. However, their rotation has been incredibly disappointing, evidenced by how they’ve had to call up their top three pitching prospects within the past month just to try and find some consistency. With the Dodgers, the talent is obviously there, but they are yet to play consistently all year.
In the AL, there is no clear favorite. The Tigers and Blue Jays have the two best records, but both rotations are questionable and offenses lack the firepower often seen by teams that have success in October. The Astros have been inconsistent all year, but their elite backend bullpen and plethora of high-level, experienced bats in Jose Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, Carlos Correa and budding star Jeremy Peña put them right in the mix. The Yankees have also been inconsistent, but they arguably have the best offense in baseball with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham all pacing significantly above average hitters this year. Their rotation is spearheaded by Max Fried and Carlos Rodón, but the rest is up in the air, with Luis Gil and rookies Will Warren and Cam Schlittler as options.
There is still a lot left to play for in these final weeks, and any team in the playoffs could get hot and go on a run. No one stands out as the team to beat. The Phillies have been leveled with injuries lately, losing Zack Wheeler to a season-ending injury and Trea Turner and Alec Bohm to the IL recently, but they look the best out of the NL field. Out of the AL, the Yankees look the best given their offensive depth and frontline starting pitching. I’m predicting Dodgers vs. Phillies in the NLCS and the Yankees vs. Astros in the ALCS. However, it ultimately comes down to who is hot and who is healthy.
