Former Vice President Joe Biden currently holds a significant lead in swing-state polls, suggesting he would win the presidency if the election were next week. These statistics raise the question of how the United States would react to Biden’s agenda if he is elected. Political scientists have suggested that successful reform occurs under strong domestic demand for such a change. The opposite is also true: State reform from mandating unpopular policies marks unsuccessful reform, resulting in political instability and ultimate disapproval of the administration. Although Biden was previously a moderate, he has moved further left to unify the Democratic party in order to win the election. Some of his policies reflect the beliefs of left-wing Democrats rather than Americans as a whole, fitting the definition of unsuccessful reform.
At the beginning of the 2020 Democratic primary race, Biden represented a return to normalcy. Progressives rallied around Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who was on track to win the primary before Biden’s popularity surged on Super Tuesday in March. When he secured the Democratic nomination in August, Biden collaborated with Sanders in an attempt to marry the moderate and progressive wings of the party, something Hillary Rodham Clinton was unable to do. In 2016, 8% to 16% of Sanders voters defected to Donald Trump in swing states, enough to swing the election in Trump’s favor.
In an attempt to avoid repeating those past mistakes this November, Biden worked directly with progressive Democrats, including Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), to form policies more appealing to the left wing of the party. These programs include free college for low-income families, an extensive bankruptcy reform plan, multiple tax increases and a $1.7 trillion climate plan to reach net-zero emissions in 30 years. In contrast, America’s College Promise under President Barack Obama proposed a smaller scope of free college, and his administration only advocated a 32% decrease of emissions in 25 years, both of which were significantly more moderate positions than Biden holds now.
Biden’s extensive regulatory agenda also includes a plethora of progressive economic policies: a $15 federal minimum wage, increased rights of workers unions, higher capital gains tax and corporate income taxes. Despite the gradual expansion of social services since the New Deal, Biden’s economic plans lie in stark contrast to the current scope of the U.S. government. Trump recorded a 63% approval rating before the pandemic by focusing on lower taxes, more jobs at all income levels and decreased government regulation, suggesting that the American people are happy with the way the economy is right now.
Political scientist Francis Fukuyama argued that successful democratic reform occurs when a society demands such a change. To me, societal demand should consist of majority support regardless of political party. If a president attempts to lead their country in a direction in which it is not willing to go, their administration will most likely be unpopular. The majority of Americans today have backed raising the minimum wage to $15, yet public sentiment about the importance of college have both decreased in recent years. The implementation of initiatives against the will of Americans could therefore lead to widespread disapproval of Biden’s administration.
However, progressive policies in the United States will most likely become more popular in the future. Throughout the past century, the scope of the U.S. government has marginally increased and is bound to rise further. Federal programs in the New Deal were thought to be too expensive by 60% of Americans in the 1930s but are considered fundamental today. Democrats also have emerged as the popular party of younger generations, implying an upcoming cultural shift that will then justify the implementation of all of Biden’s ideas.
I would advocate that Biden resort to the moderate-left policies he helped to implement under Obama, like an affordable public healthcare option, moderate minimum wage increases and modest college grants. Although progressive policies will attract votes from the far left, they are not favorable for most of the United States, resulting in disaster if implemented all at once. Therefore, Biden should gradually implement each initiative to ensure Americans approve each incremental change. Try one and see how the nation reacts, whether through approval ratings or the economic reaction. If Biden’s changes remain gradual, he will be more popular in the eyes of the U.S. majority rather than just the far left.
Chris Delaney is a freshman in the McDonough School of Business. Finding the Balance appears online every other Tuesday.
sfs22 • Oct 28, 2020 at 6:49 am
Fair enough. While I disagree with some of your points, overall a perfectly valid opinion.
Looking forward to seeing more of your op eds!
Russell • Oct 14, 2020 at 2:56 pm
A few thoughts:
Blaming any one group for “swinging” the election (Bernie voters in this case) is absurd on its face in such a close contest. You can slice the data any number of ways to lay the blame at the feet of multiple groups.
The idea that most Americans approved of the way the economy was doing before the pandemic is untrue. (https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2019/12/11/most-americans-say-the-current-economy-is-helping-the-rich-hurting-the-poor-and-middle-class/psdt_12-11-19_economic-conditions_updated-00-png11/)
Trump’s tax reforms are deeply unpopular (https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469) with only a 36% approval rating, and that was pre-pandemic.
It’s also unreasonable to use pre-pandemic economic approval numbers any because the economy has since collapsed and Biden’s economic proposals are ostensibly in response to the changed material conditions. Imagine if in 2008, I was citing taxpayer approval of the financial regulations around housing markets from a poll taken in 2007. The economic landscape has shifted in a permanent and irreversible manner and essentially all economic relief in the past 8 months has gone to the already wealthy.
The notion that social services have expanded since the New Deal is also factually, and empirically untrue. First, the chart linked in this piece only covers total spending, not per capita spending and the US population has increased by 50% since 1975. Secondly, additional spending on entitlements, particularly Social Security, necessarily increases as the population gets older. Characterizing spending in absolute terms, not as a function of GDP, or population, or the demographic makeup of that population is inaccurate at best and outright false at worst.
Also how is the fact that entitlements intended for poverty relief have increased over the past 40 years an indication that so-called “moderate” economic policies are the answer. How about the fact that real wages have been flat since 1970 ?
Finally, if the lynchpin of your argument is that these policies are bad, or that implementing them too quickly is bad, you have to do more than just claim that they’re bad. For example, how would a gradual increase in minimum wage be better than a sudden one?
Historically, in the case of major economic crises such as the one we find ourselves in today, decisive and large-scale solutions are the only things that have moved the needle. We explicitly only exited the great depression as a result of the massive economic mobilization required for WWII, and most of that was the US government essentially nationalizing most major industries. If you make the claim that economic intervention or fiscal policy ought be gradual, that has to be based on some sort of empirical or logical analysis besides some vacuous assertion that people won’t “approve”, and you certainly need that if you claim the implementation of these policies would be “disastrous”
Crack fiend • Oct 14, 2020 at 1:51 pm
Lemme clap then moderation cheex boi
Jeremy Silas • Oct 14, 2020 at 1:49 pm
Is this satire?
hoya20 • Oct 14, 2020 at 11:24 am
This article is ludicrous. The claims are unsubstantiated, unconvincing, and lazy. I’m honestly disappointed in the Opinion Editor for publishing this. It’s difficult to find the words to even respond.
Your point seems to be that left-wing policies don’t reflect the beliefs of “Americans as a whole,” whatever that means. Why you think certain Democrats are not included in the category of “Americans as a whole” is a bit concerning, as is your list of progressive economic policies, all of which are quite moderate liberal policies in 2020. You actually write in a later paragraph that $15 minimum wage, a policy you inaccurately said is “in stark contrast to the current scope of the U.S. government,” has support from most Americans.
You cite Trump’s approval rating before the pandemic as an indication of satisfaction in the economic condition “right now.” You claim “society” is not demanding “a change” despite the largest civil rights protests in history happening this year, among other things. It’s unclear what metric you would use to show “majority support” or “societal demand” for “democratic reform.” Finally, and this is not a comprehensive list of all the shortcomings written above, you say, without any evidence, that “progressive policies” will result “in disaster if implemented all at once.” This is more speculation by a freshman who’s been in college for one month than true policy analysis.
Even though this is opinion section, there has to be more demonstrated rigor. I feel dumber after reading this, and I (partially) regret spending time writing this.