After running through the New York Knicks and the Philadelphia 76ers in the first two rounds of playoffs last season, the Atlanta Hawks finally fell to the eventual champion, the Milwaukee Bucks. Atlanta was a surprise participant in the conference finals; most outlets had the Hawks pegged as a play-in team. Following their playoff run, expectations were sky high for this squad. But, the results thus far have been underwhelming — the Hawks sit at 22-25, 0.5 games back of the play-in tournament.
As with all things Atlanta, an explanation starts with Trae Young. The NBA All-Star point guard is shooting a career high from the field, as well as from the from three and free-throw lines, and he’s upped his scoring from last season while dishing out just as many assists. Atlanta has the second-best offensive rating in the NBA, scoring 114.3 points per 100 possessions. Clearly, though, their high-flying offense has not translated to team success.
The culprit has been the Hawks’ porous defense. Atlanta has the league’s second-worst defensive rating, giving up 114.7 points per 100 possessions. Once again, it starts with Young. FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR metric pegs him as one of the worst 10 defenders in the NBA out of all players with at least 500 minutes of game time. Even so, it’s not like this is a new phenomenon — RAPTOR had him as the second worst defender in the entire league last season. In addition, the Hawks were nowhere near as bad defensively last season. The team ranked 21st in the league in defensive rating. While nothing to write home about, this season’s defense is a far cry from their standing last year. So, what’s different?
For one, Clint Capela has been less effective. In any defense, the center is the most important position on the floor because they can best alter shots near the baskets. For a team like the Hawks, whose only reliable perimeter stopper is De’Andre Hunter, who continues to be in and out of the lineup, that position only becomes more valuable.
For the Hawks defense to even approach being respectable, Capela needs to be awesome at disrupting the opposition’s offense. Last season, he allowed opponents to shoot 59.4% at the rim — a good, but not great number. This season, opponents are shooting 61.9% at the rim when he’s there. While that may only seem like a small change, those percentage points add up quickly.
Even so, there are reasons for optimism. For one, both De’Andre Hunter and Onyeka Okongwu have been back in the lineup for the past couple weeks, and Atlanta has begun to improve. Hunter provides something they desperately need – a really good perimeter defender. And Okongwu is one of the new-age big men who can protect the rim but also switch onto guards when needed; he’s a very intriguing defensive piece. The two of them definitely help shore up the defense.
The Hawks have also been unlucky this season. Opponents are shooting a scorching 47.3% from 10-16 feet against them. That won’t hold up.
In addition, they have done a league-average job at protecting the rim — allowing their opponents to shoot 68.5% inside 3 feet, which is 14th in the league. Again, they have done a league-average job at limiting corner 3-pointers, as they allow the 14th most of them in the league. Yet opponents are shooting 35.7% from three against them, which is 8th best (or again, worst). These percentages are not huge discrepancies, but they are statistical anomalies that will likely correct themselves as the season goes on.
While the Hawks’ defense has prevented them from meeting lofty expectations halfway through the season, there’s clearly hope for the second half. With Hunter and Okongwu back, as well as some regression to the mean, there’s nothing stopping Atlanta from at least making their defense as good as last year’s version. And if it ever gets there, watch out — we’ll be seeing Trae Young and his high-powered offense make a deep playoff run again in no time.
Tim Brennan is a sophomore in the McDonough School of Business. Around the Association appears online every other week.
