If you are as into NBA Twitter as I am, I’m almost certain you have heard that this season there are more than 35 players averaging 20 or more points per game. Just eight years ago in the 2012-13 NBA season, only nine players averaged 20 or more. This stat may just seem like an interesting fun fact, but it is also an indication of the direction in which the NBA has been heading for years now.
Since the 2016-17 season, the league has almost set a new record for leaguewide offensive rating each season, with that trend continuing in the 2020-21 season. If the season ended today, this season would set NBA records in offensive rating, three-point percentage, three-pointers attempted and effective field goal percentage, as well as numerous other offensive statistics. The league is better on offense than ever before, but this comes with some unintended consequences.
Almost 40 years ago, Larry Bird, one of the original stat-sheet stuffers, averaged 24.2 points, 10.1 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game in his first of three consecutive MVP seasons. This season, newly minted Detroit Pistons star Jerami Grant is averaging 23.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists per contest. No basketball fan would compare Jerami Grant to one of the best players to ever touch a basketball, but just by counting stats alone, the gap between Bird and Grant is not that wide.
Sure, Bird averaged double Grant’s rebounds and assists numbers, but Grant is shooting 14% better from three than Bird did that season. His effective field goal percentage is higher too. I am nitpicking, but if in 50 years someone like me is scanning Basketball Reference, based on today’s counting stats, they might conclude 2020-21 Grant was nearly as good as 1983-84 Bird. This inference is where we get unintended consequences, because that is not true. Bird is an NBA legend –– Grant is not even being discussed as a possible All-Star this season.
For many years, statistics have done a decent job of quantifying a player’s impact on winning. Even with all the new advanced stats fans and journalists have created, players have always been introduced with their point, rebound and assist averages –– and probably always will be. Thus, while counting stats may not be the best way to judge a player, stats will always be an important part of their legacy. But is the offensive boom we are seeing today on the road to ruining the historical reliability of stats?
It might be, as it is fair to question if many players’ counting stats in today’s league are inflated by the unprecedented scoring and shooting seen this year. Inflated scores would not be a problem if it was just this season, but it does not appear that this trend will end anytime soon; if anything, it will only get worse. In 2035, are we going to have mediocre players throwing up 31 points a night? I hope not, but at this rate, it seems possible.
While this is not a pressing issue, players’ stats are a big part of their legacy, so it is important. After looking at accolades and rings, people compare players’ counting stats. No matter how popular advanced stats may be, in 30 years nobody will pull up Stephen Curry’s value over replacement player stats before they look at his regular numbers.
In my opinion, there are three main factors that are inflating stats this season. First, players are just more talented than ever before, which is a good thing. Second, coaches have become great at offensive scheming, which is a good thing too. The third, and in my opinion the primary reason, is that the league has swung the rules too far in offense’s favor. If the league continues to give offenses more advantages, it could ruin the integrity of counting statistics forever.
I hope the NBA is too smart to let this happen, but you never know. I do not want to have to explain to my future child that Jerami Grant was just a guy who got overpaid and had the ball too much, while Larry Bird is one of the best players in basketball history –– that should be obvious.
Tim Brennan is a first-year in the McDonough School of Business. Around the Association appears online every other week.
Emily Grace • Feb 20, 2023 at 5:07 am
Thanks for sharing this content.
ajey • Nov 13, 2022 at 6:04 pm
The NBA has been such a joke for almost two decades now. Yes, it’s fun watching guys putting balls in the basket, but there’s more to the game than just scoring. Stats are so inflated now that averaging a triple double is essentially meaningless in today’s game.
Stephen Curry • Sep 28, 2021 at 2:35 pm
Yes I agree with you Tim and I would like to share that It has been a long time since statistics were able to quantify a player’s role in winning. Fans and media have always introduced players with their points, rebounds, and assists -– and will probably continue to do so, despite the advent of new advanced stats. So, you can count stats as much as you want but in the end they will always be a part of a player’s legacy. The offensive boom we see today may be in danger of ruining historical predictions by causing statistics to become less reliable?
Fred • Aug 13, 2021 at 9:30 am
The 3-point-revolution in the NBA is another contributing factor to the increase in scoring over the years.
Mike • Jun 5, 2021 at 11:09 am
I couldn’t agree more. The general lack of defense that is being played is infuriating to me. At some point the league decided that offense drives fan interest, and players decided that their “brand” is fueled by offensive numbers. I almost categorically reduce a players stats by 20% now to give them context. In 2000 I believe that 2 teams were averaging over 100 points a game. Today, EVERY team is averaging well over 100. It feels like every game is an All-Star game.