Last Saturday, the Washington Nationals inked franchise player Ryan Zimmerman to a six-year, $100 million contract extension. There’s also an option for a seventh year that would lock up the third baseman through 2020 after the deal kicks in for the 2014 season. The fourth overall pick in 2005, Zimmerman has seen the Nationals at rock bottom and will lead the club as it contends for a playoff spot as soon as 2012.
Given recent contracts signed by players in a similar position to Zimmerman’s — most notably Troy Tulowitzki of the Colorado Rockies and Matt Kemp of the Los Angeles Dodgers — the deal is a win-win for both Zimmerman and Washington. Although he likely could’ve squeezed the Nats for more money by waiting for free agency to sign his next contract, this deal provides Zimmerman with immediate security with a team he ultimately wanted to stay with for the long term.
From the Nationals’ perspective, there’s significant risk in extending a player, even one of Zimmerman’s caliber, for so long and at such a high price. Zimmerman has been somewhat injury prone over his career, as he missed time with a shoulder issue in 2008 and was out for two months last year with an abdominal injury.
A healthy Zimmerman, however, is likely worth more than the $16.7 million average annual salary, given his success at the plate producing a well-above-average .296/.370/.499 “slash” line (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) over the past three years. Zimmerman has also proven to be an excellent defender at the hot corner with a UZR (ultimate zone rating, a well-regarded defensive sabermetric to analyze fielding ability) that is third in baseball since 2009, just behind the Rays’ Evan Longoria and Rangers’ Adrián Beltré.
Ultimately, extending Zimmerman was a necessity for the struggling Nats, as the prospect of losing the star to free agency loomed. In other circumstances, though, many teams and players have been agreeing to long-term extensions far in advance of a player’s free agency.
The Tampa Bay Rays have also been especially aggressive in signing their young players, such as Longoria and pitching phenom Matt Moore, to long-term deals early in their careers, with the goal of providing their young stars long-term security while potentially saving money by avoiding several years of arbitration.
Signing such players may seem like an unnecessary risk, since the volatility in young, hyped prospects is higher than one might imagine. Players who excel in the minor leagues and demonstrate the potential to excel in the Bigs quite often fail to make the next step when they get there. Players like the Tigers’ Delmon Young are projected to be superstars but often turn out average, at best.
Likewise, injuries — especially among pitchers — can derail careers in an instant. If teams elect to do what the Rays did with Moore, they run the risk of being saddled with lengthy contracts that can’t be adjusted downwards after catastrophic injuries, as would be the case in arbitration.
On the other hand, if Moore makes the progress that many expect, the $3-to-7 million he’s slated to make will be dwarfed by the $10 million-plus the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw will probably make for the same seasons. Furthermore, the extension includes three club options that can keep him a member of the Rays through 2019 at a fraction of what he could command were he to hit free agency.
Weighing the pros and cons, I ultimately endorse taking the potential multimillion-dollar risk and extending players early in their careers if they appear to be budding stars. For teams with limited funds, like the Rays, it is almost a necessity if they wish to have any shot at competing. The window of opportunity is short, and teams have to find any way they can to extend it. Although he has just a handful of Major League innings under his belt, the Rays’ extension of Matt Moore had to be done, and I applaud the Rays’ front office for continuing to be aggressive in locking up their core players for the long term. Zimmerman and Moore might go laughing to the bank now, but the Nats and Rays may have just sealed their futures as dominant league forces for years to come.
Preston Barclay is a sophomore in the McDonough School of Business. TURNING TWO IN THE 202 appears every Tuesday.
