The lackluster ratings for this year’s Academy Awards, despite having hugely popular Best Picture nominees like “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” to support the viewership, underscore an unavoidable reality: The steady decline of the Academy Awards is a reflection of movies’ diminishing stature as a dominant cultural force. For much of the 20th century, the Oscars represented the pinnacle of mainstream American entertainment. A healthy chunk of the American population would faithfully tune in, united by an understanding that the movies and personalities being honored held tremendous significance in popular culture. Oscar night was akin to a national holiday celebrating an art form that served as a binding social force. 

Those days are indisputably over. While this year’s viewership of 19.5 million showed a modest 4% uptick from recent lows, it remains a far cry from the 55 million who watched in 1998 when “Titanic” swept the major awards. The fragmentation of media and the democratization of content has rendered the Oscars increasingly niche. The challenges facing the Oscars are systemic, not an isolated problem to be solved by tweaking the broadcast or nominating more popular films — though it would help the enjoyment of those who do choose to tune in. They are, at the core, a byproduct of massive shifts in technology, audience behavior and the movie’s place in the cultural hierarchy. The dawn of streaming, social media’s endless feed of viral content and the proliferation of viable home theater systems have profoundly altered consumption habits. While going to the movies was once a communal experience and de facto social currency, viewers can now access high-quality videos from virtually infinite sources at their convenience.

In this boundless digital landscape, movies have become just another option in an endless slew of choices. Their exclusivity and broader resonance have steadily eroded, settling them into more of a niche enthusiasm. The widespread interest that once allowed Oscar winners to become binding popular sensations is waning. The types of movies being celebrated have also played a role. With largely adult-oriented dramas and comedies struggling at the box office, the Academy’s top nominees now skew toward films aimed at more fragmented audiences — art-house indies, technical marvels amenable to big screens or superhero spectacles appealing to younger demographics. In 1998, three of the five nominees for best picture were in the top 10 highest-grossing films for that calendar year, with the other two remaining in the top 50. In 2024, only two of the 10 nominees are in the top 10 highest-grossing. None of the others are even in the top 50. For an awards show to resonate with a mass audience, the celebrated works need to be films that a significant portion of the general public has actually seen and can feel a connection to; as the Oscars increasingly honor niche and esoteric movies that most people haven’t watched, it becomes harder for the average viewer to feel invested in the winners and losers.

There’s an understandable tendency to pine for some mythical “good old days” and lament the academy’s specific missteps — being too woke, too crass, too bloated, too detached from popular tastes. But the larger truth is that no reasonable tinkering can recreate the monocultural significance the Oscars once held. Hollywood’s talent and tastemakers now compete in an increasingly fragmented entertainment landscape, one where traditional broadcasting is being eclipsed and viewers’ specific interests are continuously catered to. In this ecosystem, movies simply do not occupy the same exciting, unifying space they did when film reigned as the preeminent mainstream art form.

Streaming shows, YouTube personalities, video games, social media celebrities and podcasts are all forces further dispersing attention and allegiances. Even unqualified movie hits like the recent blockbusters “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” are arguably more self-contained sensations than catalysts for broader cultural moments. This isn’t to lament the Oscars’ dwindling viewership, but simply to contextualize it. Cinema’s commercial and cultural primacy has been steadily eroding for decades under the related pressures of emerging media and shifting audience habits. While still honored as an esteemed art form and robust industry, movies are increasingly positioned as a buffet option among many rather than the preeminent mainstream entertainment. People can remain within their comfortable, cinematic “bubbles,” only watching films that cater to their tastes. 

The Academy Awards were groundbreaking as a universal celebration of the movies back when that medium served as the nucleus of America’s popular arts. As cinema has ceded that centrality, the Oscars, through no particular fault, have drifted into more of a ceremonial niche interest. Their declining ratings aren’t evidence of Hollywood’s deterioration or public apathy, but simply the inevitable byproduct of an evolution — movies fading from their long reign as America’s cultural muse. So while it is unlikely to believe that the Oscars are going anywhere, and they do have their fair share of amazing moments — “I’m Just Ken” is one that seemed particularly salient during this year’s show — it is unlikely to expect a return to a time where more than a handful of Hollywood stars and movie fanatics tune in to watch the show.