“Hope is a very dangerous thing.” For decades, fans of Cleveland sports have found Morgan Freeman’s words from “The Shawshank Redemption” to be all too true. Even casual sports fans are probably familiar with Cleveland’s level of despair: no professional Cleveland team has won a championship since 1964, and the idea that “God Hates Cleveland” is commonly accepted across the sports world. If that’s true, then something from the past few months has warmed God’s heart. Cleveland sports are on the rise, and with the way the Browns are playing, the return of LeBron James may not even be this year’s most notable sign from the heavens.
Two months ago, as the NFL season was just beginning, many figured the only way Cleveland would stay relevant was by starting Johnny “Football” Manziel, its controversial and exciting first-round draft pick, at quarterback. Instead, Johnny Football has spent nearly the entire season on the bench, and for the best possible reason — the Browns are winning. Led by Brian Hoyer, Cleveland is 6-3 and owns possession of first place in the AFC North Division for the first time this late in the season since it was tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers back in November 2007.
With that said, aside from a rock solid defense that held the high-powered Cincinnati Bengals offense to a measly three points in last Thursday’s 24-3 Browns victory, it may seem puzzling as to why Cleveland has started the season so well. For example, ESPN’s statistic measure for quarterbacks, Total QBR, lists Hoyer at 22nd out of 34 measurable quarterbacks. On a scale where 100 is the best and 50 represents a league average quarterback, Hoyer’s 53.7 rating is one of the most pedestrian measures in the league. Football Outsider’s advanced metrics put Cleveland 19th in team efficiency, right in between the 3-6 Atlanta Falcons and the 5-4 San Francisco 49ers. Even the stout defense is ranked 21st out of 32 teams, yet Cleveland still finds ways to win.
Though it may not account for a large portion of advanced statistics, Cleveland’s plus-nine turnover margin says a great deal about how the Browns win games. Cleveland averages less than one giveaway per game but creates two turnovers per game. For a team that is 26th in time of possession and 16th in Football Outsider’s offensive efficiency, that extra possession per game is vital for Cleveland.
A relatively easy schedule also helps. Because the NFL’s scheduling is, in part, based off the previous year’s performance, the Browns’ 4-12 finish last season enabled them to play weaker teams, like the Oakland Raiders and Buffalo Bills, compared to their division rivals. A fivethirthyeight.com analysis saw Cleveland as having the seventh-easiest schedule in the league, and with games against Houston and Atlanta on the horizon, there is a very likely scenario that Cleveland could have seven or eight wins under its belt by Thanksgiving, making it a prime contender for a playoff spot in the AFC.
While the Browns are more of a surprise Cinderella story, the return of LeBron James has far-reaching impacts beyond the Quicken Loans Arena court. July estimates made by Bloomberg put the value of LeBron’s return to be $500 million per year for the city. Though the Cavaliers franchise is the largest beneficiary, there is still good reason to believe that downtown businesses will benefit as well. Season tickets for the Cavs sold out within hours of LeBron’s announcement, and nightly attendance is expected to be consistently around 20,000, compared to an average of 12,000 people last year. The renewed influx of fans in an increasingly vibrant downtown will help Cleveland businesses that are dependent on tourism, and live events maintain and create jobs even if some of the spending that is now going toward basketball comes at the expense of other entertainment or nightlife alternatives.
Despite a 2-3 start, which can largely be attributed to growing pains and a lack of in-game chemistry, the Cavs will almost certainly compete for a top seed in the Eastern Conference. The arrival of all-star power forward Kevin Love from Minnesota and the continued growth of point guard Kyrie Irving could mean a newer and younger edition of the Big Three that LeBron formed in Miami with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. Though LeBron only signed a two-year contract, he should have plenty of time to forge the necessary bonds with Irving and Love to put Cleveland in the championship conversation.
It almost seems strange to be discussing the justified optimism of a city that is referred to by detractors as The Mistake by the Lake. Naturally, Cleveland fans are probably wary to hope; they’ve indulged before only to be burned. Yes, hope can be a very dangerous thing, but for Cleveland in 2014, it might just be a worthwhile endeavor.
Mike Ippolito is a sophomore in the College. The Water Cooler appears every Tuesday.
